President Donald Trump strongly hinted that the United States will engage in violent action against the most powerful drug cartels in Mexico. In his inaugural address, Trump pledged he would be "designating the cartels as foreign terrorist organizations." Trump will sign an executive order to that effect later Monday.
A foreign terrorist designation is not the key point in and of itself here. Instead, a strong indication that Trump is preparing to issue a highly classified covert action finding that would authorize the CIA to engage in violent action against the cartels. While an FTO designation would open a vast number of Mexican businesses and politicians to U.S. criminal proceedings if they continued to deal with the cartels, it would also provide supporting government action for a covert action finding, which enables the CIA to use force against the cartels. Any CIA covert action would entail the use of force, sabotage, and manipulation to weaken and undermine the cartels in relation to their U.S. operations. Put simply, it would mean U.S. intelligence officers killing or otherwise attacking cartel officers and assets.
Considering his border security and tariff pledges, it's thus clear that Trump is set to enjoin a very different U.S.-Mexico relationship.
Endemic cartel-related corruption in the Mexican government — President Claudia Sheinbaum's predecessor was a Sinaloa cartel servant — means that Trump's action will carry significant political consequences. Indeed, it may carry geopolitical consequences. The Albanian government of Edi Rama is a money laundering ally of the Sinaloa cartel, for example.
While Trump authorized tentative covert action efforts against the cartel during his first term, he now appears to have far greater ambitions. We've already had two preceding indications of Trump's covert action intent.
First, Trump's regular campaign rally pledges to confront the Mexican drug cartels indicate an intent to act. As Trump's national security adviser, Mike Waltz, told CBS on Sunday, "President Trump was clear on the campaign trail that we’re going to take them on, and then we’re going to use every resource that we need to defend the American people."
Second, Trump's appointment of Ronald Johnson as U.S. Ambassador to Mexico shows he wants the right personnel in place for action. Johnson is a former Army special forces Colonel with extensive related experience in Latin America. Crucially, the Army also lists Johnson as having served "a second career with the Central Intelligence Agency and participated in worldwide operational and combat experiences in integrated actions with special mission units."
Translated: Johnson was almost certainly a member of what is now the CIA Special Activities Center's Special Operations Group. As shown in the challenge coin below, the SOG's motto is "Tertia Optio" or "Third Option." This refers to the group operating as a third option between diplomacy and overt military force for the U.S. government.
There will be few in the CIA, FBI, and Drug Enforcement Administration who oppose Trump's impending action. Many honorable Mexican security officials will share this positive sentiment. After all, the Sinaloa, Gulf, Jalisco New Generation, Los Zetas, and Juarez cartels are all engaged in systematic drug trafficking to the U.S. Their reach into state and federal Mexican politics and security operations is highly significant. They have repeatedly tortured and killed CIA and DEA agents and officers, including, although it is not publicly known, in the recent past. The Jalisco New Generation and Los Zetas cartels are particularly brutal, regularly using inventive means of execution that make even the Islamic State group look moderate in comparison. For one, they like using blunt knives for decapitation murders.
A covert action finding will mean cartel officers, financiers, enablers, and even politicians ending up dead as a result of unexplained action. It will mean bank accounts being emptied, and drug supply vessels sinking at sea. It will mean a war in the shadows fought with aggression.
The challenge for Trump is that any U.S. covert action will risk political countermeasures from Mexico and retaliation from very well-armed cartels. Mexican government retaliation might potentially include the suspension of joint counter-drug activity. And while Trump may believe he can mitigate this risk via the threat of expanded tariffs or increased uses of force, resolving Mexico's cartel problem is going to take generations. The cartels, after all, essentially run much of Mexico.
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Still, this is a positive step by Trump. He appears set to embrace robust action to confront some very unpleasant people who have enjoyed far too much impunity for far too long.
Even if the cartels are only weakened rather than substantially eliminated, Trump will likely be able to leverage covert action to extract new norms of behavior from the Mexican government and its cartel allies.