On U.S. Navy vessels, the call to emergency action stations is "General Quarters." China's public display of the world's first sixth-generation fighter jet is a call to general quarters, to action stations, for the whole of our society.
The display on Dec. 26 near Chengdu, in central China, was of an aircraft matching sixth-generation airframe characteristics. It was filmed making a short demonstration flight. Dubbed by observers as the J-36, the new fighter jet was designed by the Chengdu Aircraft Corporation. It follows China's 2017 deployment of the impressive fifth-generation J-20 stealth fighter jet and China's advanced stage development of its J-35 stealth fighter jet, based heavily on the design of the world-leading U.S. Air Force F-22 fighter jet.
Many analysts expressed doubt that the J-36 is indeed a sixth-generation fighter jet, but they’re wrong. It is. There is excellent open-source reporting to support this, from @Rupprecht_A, for example. Rupprecht is extremely well regarded by military analysts for his coverage of the People's Liberation Army. He is confident that the J-36 is sixth-generation in nature. Another analyst noted that the "J-36's power generation, cooling, spacing & antenna size & fuel (for power generation) is just a whole league above 5th gen aircraft."
Some analysts and commentators seem determined to convince themselves that China could not have leaped ahead of the United States in this area. But many of these analysts have persistently and grossly underestimated the PLA's technical development. They arrogantly assume that because the U.S. throws vast sums of money at the research and development of new military technologies, China cannot compete at the highest level. Brendan Mulvaney, director of the U.S. Air Force’s China Aerospace Studies Institute, was badly wrong when he was asked by Defense News last June whether China would soon have a sixth-generation fighter jet. “Today? No,” he said. “Twenty years from now? Absolutely."
If the J-36 becomes active and operational within the next few years, China will have beaten America to having the first combat-ready sixth-generation fighter jet. With its new stealth profile, combined with a large fuel capacity, extensive electronic warfare and communications, and heavy weapons payload, the J-36 would pose major difficulties for U.S. military forces in the event of a war over Taiwan. The J-36 is almost certain to include means of controlling drones flying alongside it in war.
Time is not on America's side. Chinese President Xi Jinping has directed his military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. The PLA is spending heavily on capabilities it would need to succeed in that invasion and to defeat any U.S. military intervention to defend the island nation. This includes highly capable warships, long-range ballistic missiles, and space-based weapons. The J-36 would complement all this. If deployed successfully, it would attempt to penetrate first-line U.S. air defenses to threaten important targets such as unarmed, non-stealth U.S. refueling and intelligence aircraft. This would gut the U.S. military's already fragile ability to sustain fighter and bomber operations at long range against Chinese targets around Taiwan. The J-36 might also target U.S. aircraft carriers operating hundreds of miles from Taiwan.
The U.S. is in no position to compete with China. The development of America's sixth-generation "Next Generation Air Dominance" fighter is suspended because of ballooning costs. Pentagon and congressional failure to impose serious consequences on Lockheed Martin for grotesque cost overruns and performance failures means the centerpiece of the U.S. Air Force's combat air fleet, the F-35 jet, remains exceptionally expensive, heavily delayed, and questionably reliable. Thanks to former Defense Secretary Bob Gates's foolish decision to end procurement of the F-22 fighter jet, the F-35 is the only stealth fighter jet in the U.S. military arsenal capable of being mass-produced.
Some suggest that the U.S. should focus solely on drones to fill the capability gap. However, while advances in drone technology will eventually negate the need for manned combat aircraft, they cannot meet warfighting needs for at least the next 10 to 20 years. Fielding a manned sixth-generation combat aircraft will be crucial to the U.S. military's potency of force.
The J-36 is only part of the PLA's ability to shock America.
China has hundreds of intelligence officers and agents in the U.S. Some have cover as diplomats or military officers. Others are students, scientists, and businessmen. They are so numerous that they overwhelm the FBI's ability to interdict them. Their job is to steal American technology, spy on the U.S. military and political targets, and harass Chinese citizens into serving Beijing at the price of detaining or killing their families if they refuse.
Chinese technology research is proceeding apace at home. The Chinese Communist Party's scientists are working hard on artificial intelligence, quantum computing, new stealth coating for combat aircraft, next-generation radar systems, and revolutionary submarine sensing technologies. All of this is a problem. The U.S. retains a clear advantage over the PLA in attack submarines, but what if the PLA becomes able to detect American submarines? The question answers itself.
China has also raced ahead of the U.S. in developing hypersonic glide vehicles. These weapons represent the next generation in conventional and nuclear strike capabilities, threatening to cut through air defenses like a knife through butter.
China's work on a means of destroying Elon Musk's 7,000 Starlink satellites and U.S. military satellites is also proceeding. Musk may not have heard about this activity from his Chinese Communist friends, but it is deadly serious. It is advancing. Chinese scientists recently used a computer simulation to test their combat theories. As the South China Morning Post reported on Sunday, "Results from the computer simulation showed that China could effectively approach nearly 1,400 Starlink satellites within 12 hours using just 99 Chinese satellites. These could be equipped with lasers, microwaves, and other devices to conduct reconnaissance, tracking, or other operations."
Then, there is China's continued collection of vast amounts of data on Americans. Whether it’s TikTok, the 2014 hack into the Office of Personnel Management, the recent infiltration of U.S. telecommunications records of tens of millions of Americans, or any number of other efforts, China is making vast efforts to spy on Americans to gain information that would allow it to blackmail or support other hostile targeting efforts. China takes advantage of the lethargy with which the U.S. democratic system responds to evolving threats.
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In short, the J-36 is a problem, but it is part of a wider, bigger, more dangerous problem with China. It underlines China's skill and ambition to dominate the new technologies that will shape who wins an approaching major war and who thus shapes the politics and economics of the 21st century.
Considering how China treats its people, let alone foreigners, our society needs to sound general quarters.