With conflict raging across the globe, Congress, in the 2024 National Defense Authorization Agreement, must increase the U.S. military’s funding levels above the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act’s funding limits.
The 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act limited defense spending by 1% in 2025. That might sound insignificant, but it is far below what is required to effectively deter China and others who would like to challenge America's geopolitical influence.
Moreover, failing to maintain Department of Defense purchasing power in the face of inflation amounts to a cut to the defense budget. An Air Force spokesperson said in a recent press release that "just to keep pace with inflation for critical needs, like military pay, health care, and housing, the topline would need to be higher by at least 4%." Because of these cuts, the branch has had to reduce its fleet to its lowest level since 1947 and hollow out its operations in countless other ways.
This month, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall even said the budgetary restrictions may force it to "take another look" at its spending plans for its Next Generation Air Dominance fighter system — the new system that will ensure America’s aircraft remains up to date with China’s rapidly advancing fighter technology.
While China is making rapid progress on its sixth-generation tech at rapid speeds each day and remains on track to complete it by 2035, the United States's current top fighter jet, the F-35, faces serious software and readiness problems. To remain military dominant, we need to complete the NGAD before China launches its new fighter system. Notwithstanding Kendall’s comment, Congress, to its credit, included adequate funding levels for the NGAD in the NDAA.
It is not just the Air Force that faces real dollar budget cuts. The U.S. Navy, which plays a critical role in defending our interests and allies worldwide is being forced to decommission ships and shrink its forces at an alarming rate. The U.S. is unable to produce more than one attack submarine annually. Almost half our submarine fleet is in port awaiting maintenance. Without these submarines, America will struggle to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or counter China’s rapidly advancing global naval intelligence-gathering operations.
America’s nuclear weapons triad will soon be too small to deter Russia and China. This is because China’s nuclear weapons program is expanding rapidly. Beijing has 500 nuclear weapons and will have more than 1,000 by 2030, according to the DOD. Russia’s and China’s combined nuclear arsenals will double ours. Moreover, our missiles, submarines, and bombers are Cold War relics, so deploying the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missiles, Columbia class boomer, and the B-21 Raider as soon as possible is a strategic imperative.
Paying for these vital DOD programs, NGAD, the submarine force, and the Triad, must account for the nation’s current budget realities.
First, the DOD must be clear-eyed about its role and stop wasting funds on social and cultural programs and platforms that will not be useful in a great power fight.
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Second, the DOD must fix its procurement and manufacturing mess. The F-35 was designed in 1995 but wasn't fully deployed until 2021 — an entire generation later. And it came in massively over budget. The same cannot be allowed to happen to the NGAD.
Given the wars around the world and threats to America and its allies, it is critical the U.S. builds the platforms that will allow us to deter our foes and defeat them if they bring the fight to us. A defense budget that does not keep pace with inflation and a business-as-usual DOD are not part of that winning equation.
Robert O'Brien served as U.S. national security adviser from 2019 to 2021.
